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Moody's: Romney gains in swing states

July 26, 2012: 2:08 PM ET

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Mitt Romney is gaining ground in key swing states, according to the latest election forecast from Moody's Analytics.

The group's model -- which produces a state-by-state prediction based in part on the latest economic data -- shows that Romney's chances improved last month in seven of the 10 swing states that Moody's currently forecasts will be won by President Obama in November.

But Romney's positive momentum was not enough to change any one state from blue to red. While his projected margin of victory narrowed, Obama is still on track to capture 51.42% of the vote in Virginia, the state closest to flip-flopping.

Overall, Romney's odds improved in 10 of 14 swing states, and the former Massachusetts governor added to his projected margin of victory in three of the four swing states in which he already leads.

Even though his challenger gained in key states, Obama is still on track to capture 303 electoral votes, well more than the 270 required for victory.

Of course, if economic growth slows further, the model could easily shift.

Election prognosticators will get more economic data to consider on Friday, when the first estimate of second quarter GDP is scheduled for release. The all-important July jobs report will follow one week later.

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About This Author
Charles Riley
Charles Riley
Reporter, CNNMoney

Charles Riley lives and works in Hong Kong, where he covers markets, economics and other high-impact stories across Asia. He previously worked for CNNMoney in New York and CNN in Washington. He tweets @CRrileyCNN

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