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Obama still on track for electoral victory

June 29, 2012: 5:00 AM ET

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President Obama is still on track for an electoral victory this November, according to a forecasting model produced by Moody's Analytics.

But his advantage over Mitt Romney is narrowing. According to the model, which produces a state-by-state prediction based in part on the latest economic data, Obama is on track to capture 303 electoral votes.

That's more than the 270 required for victory, but if economic growth slows further, the model could easily shift.

In May, the economy added just 69,000 jobs. And revisions from previous months showed the economy gained 49,000 fewer jobs in March and April than originally thought.

Moody's lowered its growth forecasts for the year as a result of the dour economy data. In the model, Obama's electoral vote‚Äźweighted share of state popular votes dropped to 51.98%, down from 52.17% the previous month.

According to the model, Obama is likely to hold onto the key battleground states of Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

But states like Florida (29 electoral votes) and North Carolina (15 electoral votes) are likely to turn from blue to red.

According to Moody's, Obama's lead is narrowest in Virginia and Ohio, where he is projected to capture 51.6% and 51.9% of the vote. Should those two states flip, Obama's electoral vote count would be released to 272 -- in other words, an extremely narrow victory.

Of course, the model is likely to change as election day approaches and more economic data is included.

CNN's own interactive electoral map, which can be found here, still rates Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida as "toss up" states.

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About This Author
Charles Riley
Charles Riley
Reporter, CNNMoney

Charles Riley lives and works in Hong Kong, where he covers markets, economics and other high-impact stories across Asia. He previously worked for CNNMoney in New York and CNN in Washington. He tweets @CRrileyCNN

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